We've got a team on the ground here at E3, and each of us has been concentrating on different things. Wait, before I go on, high praise for my colleagues Kris Graft, Chris Remo, Christian Nutt and Brandon Sheffield, who are not only awesome to work with, but have been doing great stuff here. Special thanks to our excellent overlord Simon Carless for looking after us all, and to TinyCartridge/GameSetWatch's Eric Caoili, who's been kind and diligent enough to help us with the news stories we miss while we're in briefings and meetings.
Since like most sites we attack E3 as a team, there've been plenty of things I haven't had a chance to see, and among those is Nintendo. Its booth is enormous and virtually dominates the show floor (where can I get a fluffy white carpet like that?) but I didn't go to its briefing and I haven't had the chance to see much of its stuff firsthand.
I've been concentrating on Microsoft and Sony, mostly, and their big reveals, among them the gesture-based control schemes they each unveiled. One thing I've heard in conversations here and on other internet forums is the idea that the two are "late to the party," so to speak, in the motion control department.
When Wii launched, people called its control scheme a gimmick -- but it turns out that "gimmick" enabled an entirely new audience of gamers, created an unprecedented userbase, and built revenue opportunities that've sustained the industry through an economic decline. In her interview with Christian Nutt, Nintendo's Denise Kaigler talks about starting the trend, and about how the company hasn't forgotten the core.
Now, of course the other two want in. Is it too late, though?
One common criticism against Nintendo is that no software developers can do significantly well on Wii except for Nintendo. This might be true if we're talking about the gamer audience -- what core franchise can do better on Wii than Mario, Metroid and Zelda? But visualize a universe where Nintendo owned only the platform, and a third-party owned those franchises. We wouldn't be having this conversation, necessarily (and so married are the spirit and design philosophy of those franchises to the feel and spirit of Nintendo's hardware tech that it's almost a moot point).
There are third-party successes on Wii. They're just not on your radar. Take-Two has top-seller Carnival Games, and Electronic Arts has had its best Wii launch to date with EA Sports Active just recently. All the casual and kids games you tune out during briefings are the kind of things that sell on Nintendo platforms, as well if not better than the things we can't wait to hear about and buy.
The general opinion seems to be that Microsoft's Natal is more useful to a wider audience than Sony's (I interviewed Sony about its motion control scheme and this idea of a core-versus-casual divide here). That may mean that Microsoft's concept is better positioned for success than Sony's.
Again, though -- there's already an all-audiences-oriented control scheme that works. It's rocketed Nintendo to the lead position in the platform wars. Is it too late for anyone else to compete? What do you think?
18 comments:
Natal's success is wholly dependent on Microsoft's ability to get Tom Cruise to do a Minority Reportesque commercial for it's debut.
I just did a post on this today:
http://dragonchasers.com/2009/06/04/motion-controller-wars/
Basically I think Sony's scheme will be better for games, but Natal will 're-invent' the Xbox and be a game-changer, not for games, but for consumer electronics UIs.
But Sony is trying to replace a control scheme for games that already works better than what they are proposing. Its why Muramsa isn't using motion control, it gets in the way.
The problem for the Wii and games is that there has to be a reason to be on the Wii vs the other consoles besides "huge install base!" Very few games do that.
This early on it's still quite dependent on what people define as "success", and at least in that respect, MS seems to have a clearer goal in mind with Natal, the briefing for which outlined all of that. They want (and have wanted) a larger slice of the market Nintendo enabled, and they're positioning Natal to do exactly that. That said, will that be successful with US, for whom EA Sports Active and Carnival Games are NOT on the radar? That remains to be seen.
In contrast, Sony seems better positioned to take advantage of that opportunity, at least from an engineering perspective. From the FPS-style demo to the swinging swords, everything they were using their motion control (I'll call it Dualwand, since that sounds like Dualshock) seemed to be oriented towards showing US how their wands could be used to play the games that ARE on our radar, in a way that surpasses what the Wii is currently capable of (the ever-elusive 1-to-1).
Which will lead to so-called victory? That depends. If Natal works out as advertised, the 360 may well come to dominate, being just as capable as the PS3 in playing (or at least securing) enthusiast titles and equipped with the ultimate in mass-market-enabling motion control, all augmented by Xbox Live's enhanced social networking aspects.
But again, that's all wild speculation. Only one of the now-three motion control options has manifested concrete success, and it's really up to the other two to properly define and appeal to their markets.
I think both Sony and Microsoft are late to the party, so to speak, but not too late.
I think Microsoft's Project Natal is easily more marketable and has a bigger "wow" factor that Sony's motion controller doesn't – because it's too similar to the Wii Remote.
But, ultimately, what will make these products successful (or not) will depend on a) whether the devices themselves actually work; and b) the games that use them. (Plus super-special invisible criterion 'x', how they are marketed.)
I think the Wii holds some key ground within a certain demographic, but if Sony and Microsoft can prove that their products are better, then customers will gravitate towards those products. Some of what I saw at the Sony and Microsoft press conferences blew me away; I expect if the non-gaming public saw what we saw then they would also feel the same way.
Nintendo may have a head start, but it's by no means guaranteed they'll hold the lead.
What the Wii has done so successfully is initiate the development of software attuned to its control scheme. We repeatedly see how cross-platform games fail on the Wii due to the control scheme, whereas games like Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime fare better being designed uniquely for the Wii.
Natal seems better poised to make use of this design philosophy. You can't simply graft a "No Controller" design scheme onto a product borne out of Controller-friendly design. It sounds like Microsoft wants to explore how to design games uniquely for this device, whereas Sony's demonstration seemed like it was busy finding out ways to replicate mechanics we've mastered on controllers.
If Sony can really get developers to think outside of the box (like some of the better selling Wii titles), maybe they'll compete. As it stands, Natal looks to make a bigger impact simply by being more unique.
I don't think this is all really gonna come to fruition until the next console cycle, when all these features are included standard and further refined.
Big innovations like 3D, online, and this usually take until the generation after their introduced to really reach their potential.
This is Sony's SECOND motion controller. What in Microsoft's history tells you they are good at dominating anything they didn't originally create? (Zune? Xbox?)
Every new show we hear about the next ipod killer, iphone killer, itunes killer...now its the Wii killer. I think people are looking for something that is just not there. To get in the door with Microsoft's/Sony's controllers you have to be willing to buy the machine, ditch the parts that come with it for something those 2 platforms do not do well?
People give the casual gamer a lot of crap for buying shovelware. But on Nintendo's platforms, Nintendo's own software dominates. We all agree Nintendo makes the best games. Thus, it can be inferred that the casual gamer knows what they are doing!
Like it or not, the Wii is NOT threatened by any of these products until Sony and Microsoft's upper brass makes a full committment to them, like Nintendo did. Having them on the shelf or as a bullet point does not work. They need to ditch their current controllers (and audience?), rebrand the consoles (new names perhaps...I dont' know any non-gamer who is going to buy a system called Playstation 3, if they weren't in on the first 2 they aren't now) and most importantly, spend a lot of money educating an audience they are not equipped to market to why they need their product.
Good luck.
"This is Sony's SECOND motion controller. What in Microsoft's history tells you they are good at dominating anything they didn't originally create? (Zune? Xbox?)
"
Seriously? You do realize we are talking about Microsoft right? They didn't invent the OS. They certainly were late to the GUI for an OS. They became the dominant player. They were far, far behind in productivity software and again they are the only real player now. They have a huge presence in backend software vs a free alternative. They didn't invent the web browser but are the dominant firm. The Xbox went from a distant after thought to beating Sony who had 120 million install base. Microsoft lives to dominate in fields they didn't invent.
@Robert
Your comment, while well put, is not the point of the post your responding to. Microsoft has not completely beaten Sony as it is even in Europe and not even close in Japan. Nintendo has beaten both of them. The numbers dont' lie.
3 motion control ideas:
1. Cast spells in Harry Potter with gestures and voice recognition (use of Rock Band drumstick as a wand [optional]). That way you have to wave around like a tool and you have to say "Wingardium Leviosa" out loud in front of everybody.
2. Command squad using authentic SWAT/Special Forces.
3. In Snatcher/Policenauts you use a controller until you need to blast some fool and then you whip out your wireless Light Blue or Pink handgun and get your blast on.
All of these should work with Natal (just because it uses a camera doesn't preclude the use of trackable implements)
@WuJenZ - Interesting point about tracking on the Natal. If it can scan things into the game world, why can't it simply keep an eye on them on the real world, too?
My concern, and I wrote about this in an article the other day, is that the Natal will require some kind of neutral play zone. Is it really so accurate that it won't be confused if my cat jumps onto the couch behind me? What if I'm picking a movie and my friend is waving his hand behind me? Who does it listen to?
Are these concerns even legitimate? Or should I just be happy to experience this crazy camera?
Sony is late to the party with their eyetoy wands.
Microsoft is throwing it's own party with Natal.
It doesn't make much sense to group the Wii controller, the eyetoy, and Natal into the same category. Natal is a very different type of "motion controller." Looking back at what Anon said, it should be considered a Microsoft Original. If it succeeds or fails is more a question of if the developers and utilize it to fulfill the wild, futuristic fantasies that novelists and Hollywood and been pumping out for years.
aside:
I don't like how it doesn't seem to track fine details like your fingers (simple, possibly fashionable, glove accessories should make it relatively easy if it doesn't already)
I have serious doubts about Microsofts aproach. I mean what games can you actually play with that camera.
You cant have trigger on a gun, maybe you can steer a car with it but how do you accelarate.
You could do a peripheral pack-In the camera tracks with buttons on it, but then you are right back where the others are.
I really cant think of any implementation beside Eyetoy games. That Ball against the wall demo could have been done on an Eyetoy!
Beside that i, comming from a computer animation background, find the technologie quite fascinating, but the tracking didn`t work right in the live demo (BAM, look under my shoe) and the promotional video were all concept, that stuff was never ever controlled by the camera.
What originally made me buy a Wii was the idea of actually wielding an ingame sword or that kind of games. Nintendo somehow doesn`t do any serious game in that direction. When i hear that Miyamoto is still not sure wether MotionPlus should be required for the next Zelda, i am really loosing my faith for them.
Sony on the other hand looks like they actually want to go that way and thats what sold me on their approach. But they are not gonna reach into the soccer moms wit it.
There are SO MANY double entendres that I predict will be made in college dorms due to both Microsoft and Sony's motion controllers. That is the only set in stone law of success of motion controller penetration of the console market, started by the Wii.
I reckon that E3 was about so much wand waving that it would make Harry Potter blush, and I don't mean about the control schemes of the said controllers, I mean the *other* controller, that only boys have.
All E3 does each year apart from introduce new games is to get fanboys angry with each other. It really is a console war once the fanboys get involved.
Stay 100 feet away from mics, and suck Kojimas Cock some where else, put a nazi outfit on while youre at it if you want to. Call everything related to Sci-fi Nerdy but praise Anime ALL YOU want......
...But please, please, please STAY AWAY from Podcasts from now on. k? thanks bye
this is why bitches shouldn't play videogames
jesus christ
OMG sony motion wand is sso innovative!!!
it's basically the same shit as wii motion plus but more expensive
had to switch it off, dumb ho
I think that with all three companies working with motion controls is a good thing.
I see it like this, the Nintendo 64 had the first modern analog joystick right? It worked well for the time. Sony then enters the ring with a controller with two analog joysticks a while later, and here we are now.
The Wii enters and brings us the introduction to motion controls, most of which works well. Now its Sony's and Microsoft's turn to try and one up the previous invention.
By no means, have we seen the level of innovation yet that the analog stick brought, but with three companies each with unique viewpoints, I believe that something really cool can happen.
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